For at least the next two years, aviation will be supply-constrained rather than demand driven | Airlines

Viator – A TripAdvisor Company

Global travel returns to normal, but growth is increasingly at the mercy of aircraft-makers.

On top of this, global economic activity continues to hold up better than expected, with interest rates and inflation likely at, or past, their peaks.

Oil prices have stabilised and are forecast to remain at more reasonable levels of around USD80 to USD85 per barrel. Although international trade is weak – hurting the previously buoyant air cargo sector – activity jumped late in 2023 and is expected to pick up overall as 2024 progresses.

Global airline association IATA’s latest forecast is that the airline industry will achieve aggregate profits of close to USD26 billion for the year, on record revenues of around USD964 billion.

Travel demand remaining strong – this is particularly so for international travel and in premium leisure cabins. Although the highly profitable business travel sector has been slow to come back, ending the year at around 80-85% of 2019 levels, there is still headroom for substantial growth.

The outlook for the airline industry generally is positive. Most airlines will be expanding network and traffic beyond pre-pandemic levels, while working towards improving profitability and resolving the last lingering issues from COVID-19.

Positive outlook drives aircraft ordering to new records.

Airlines and leasing companies have embarked on an unprecedented aircraft ordering spree. Customers which had delayed/deferred fleet plans in 2020 through 2022 have finally made substantial orders.

Other airlines have made ambitious growth statements based on the rapid…

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